Right now
The most recent data we hold from NOAA arrived 61 minutes ago, and this point is not in it. We record detections, not passes: an absence is not proof that nothing is there.
Nothing else has been detected within 20 km in the last 24 hours.
This alert expired on 5 July 2026 at 03:00 UTC. It is kept here as a record.
It is the 3rd strongest of the 197 detections recorded within 20 km of this point since 11 March 2026. Another comparable one was recorded here earlier the same day. 3 more were recorded here in the fortnight before it.
What the source measured
NOAA reported: Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued July 4 at 5:28PM EDT until July 4 at 11:00PM EDT by NWS Upton NY
Urban PEI: 240,254 within a heuristic 50 km radius; not unique people.
Nearby, since 11 March 2026
- August 10, 2026 · score 43 · 0.0 km
- July 28, 2026 · score 67 · 8.1 km
- May 27, 2026 · score 43 · 9.4 km
How we know
One source: NOAA. Not yet confirmed by a second, independent source.
Our own score for this event is 43 out of 100.
This is our versioned heuristic index, not source severity or a calibrated probability. Urban PEI does not count unique people.
Computed under scoring rules v1. Rows carrying other versions were judged by different rules and are not directly comparable.
Event Data
| Type | Severe Weather |
| Severity | Medium |
| Calamity Score (ours) | 43 / 100 |
| Legacy data-support index | 0.78/1 |
| Coordinates | 39.3250, -75.6625 |
| Nearest City | Middletown (15 km) |
| Urban exposure index (PEI) | 240.3K within 50 km |
| Impact Tier | significant |
| Timestamp | 2026-07-04T21:28:00.000Z |
| Source | https://api.weather.gov/alerts/merged_Severe Thunderstorm Watch_noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.578cfed3fa2da0419b93426e2ab29b58 |
Physical priority index · v1. Heuristic priority, not calibrated probability, predictive accuracy or damage. The legacy data-support index combines assigned source support and field availability. Urban PEI is distance-weighted and does not count unique people; zero does not establish that nobody is present. Model cards.
Source and revision timeline
Source: noaa. Occurrence: 2026-07-04T21:28:00.000Z.
First archived: 2026-07-04T23:21:16.037Z. Material modification: not recorded.
Retained revisions are prospective; earlier versions may be unavailable. No revision entry does not prove that a record never changed.
Score Breakdown
Technical Details
| Event | Severe Thunderstorm Watch |
| Urgency | Future |
| Certainty | Possible |
| AreaDesc | Essex, NJ; Passaic, NJ; Union, NJ; Orange, NY; Bergen, NJ; Hudson, NJ; Bronx, NY; Kings, NY; New York, NY; Putnam, NY; Queens, NY; Richmond, NY; Rockland, NY; Westchester, NY; Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point to Windmill Point VA; Coastal waters from Fenwick Island DE to Chincoteague VA out 20 NM and 5 more areas |
| Headline | Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued July 4 at 5:28PM EDT until July 4 at 11:00PM EDT by NWS Upton NY |
| Expires | 2026-07-04T23:00:00-04:00 |
| SenderName | NWS Upton NY |
| HasExactCoords | false |
| MergedCount | 8 |
| MergedIds | ["noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.578cfed3fa2da0419b93426e2ab29b58ac23e6c4.003.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.578cfed3fa2da0419b93426e2ab29b58ac23e6c4.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.cb47b98572f9e735448561b6179f42ae450a4853.002.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.eeb12aa6f8383a9df0dd3e74cbd1263285ed4d52.002.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.eeb12aa6f8383a9df0dd3e74cbd1263285ed4d52.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.4fc2819c830aaebb0e36fc2e675e58a050269445.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.4fc2819c830aaebb0e36fc2e675e58a050269445.002.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.cb47b98572f9e735448561b6179f42ae450a4853.001.1"] |
Safety Information
Always follow official guidance from your local emergency management agency. This platform provides scientific monitoring data and is not a substitute for official warnings. If you are in immediate danger, contact your local emergency number.
Series begins 8 March 2026. Comparisons refer to that period only. Collection gap: 14-26 August 2026.
This data is aggregated algorithmically from scientific sources. Not a replacement for official emergency warnings.
Review the area, threshold and delivery channel in your account.
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